Do Republicans Still Have a Chance to Take Congress glennbeck

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So I Get Up Today And Theres

tons of states that still are counting now We used to 20 years ago make fun of Florida and for at least the next two elections. I would have a habit of saying Florida Aura Don’t screw it up now Florida seems to have the best system out there. I mean they count them quickly accurately and last night was a blowout in Florida, but we’re still waiting we don’t even know for sure if we have control of Congress yeah. The house is not a completely sure thing Republicans would be the favorites there um 99 favorite or like a 60 figure now let me give you let me give you a top line thing from the prediction markets here as we’ve gone through and settled through all the results and tried to sort through what the heck happened last night Yeah. The a democratic sweep right now? According to betting markets Democratic House Democratic Senate 14 chance of that happening Okay Okay Republican House and Senate.

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The Republican Sweep We Kind Of All Hoped

for going into the evening a 15 chance of happening right now the most likely outcome a Republican House A Democratic Senate 73 chance now there’s a little bit some rounding in there so it’s not going to add up exactly but that you get the sense as to where people are looking people. The people who actually bet their own money on this stuff are saying this is where we see this right now so if you look at these races. A lot of this is going to count on and I I know exactly how people are going to feel when I say this but very close house races in States like California state right. races where Republicans look to have a lead, but we’re not going to know for sure possibly for a while when it comes to house control you’re looking at something probably in the low 220s. Now you need 218 for control.

Low 220S So Kind Of A Reverse Of

what we’ve had for the past two years where very narrow control except by the Republicans instead of the Democrats that’s huge assuming it holds It can block multiple trillions of dollars of spending. You know the build back better acts and the green New Deals and all these things. They try to jam through with 50 seats in the Senate. They can’t get them through if just the house holds so that’s very very big on the Senate side, though it’s a lot harder to come up with a with the scenario where they can win, though it does exist. And we’ll go through it here in a minute but that’s where you’re talking about Supreme Court seats and things like that which will be very very problematic Is very very forward very bad Okay all right should we go through some of these races and how everything went first I’d like to know um how off were the polls because it seems like they were very off.

I Dont I Mean The Polls

had a pretty good night okay that’s good I mean you know except for like except for Arizona seems I don’t think again. Arizona I think we all think Carey Lake is great. We love her. She’s very talented politician, but people took the 11 Point poll that came out a couple weeks before the election as Gospel as to where that race stood that is not where the majority of the polling had it The final Real Clear Politics average was Kerry Lake by three and a half now look okay. So we’re still at a point where Kerry Lake can pull this out.

I I Think You Know That Thats A

she’s ahead as this at this point is she not she’s not ahead in the current count um but that is not to be. This is again. You were mentioning Florida Florida counties votes we knew it happened last night it was it was amazing it was how it was supposed to exist right you’re supposed to be able to see results like that you remember the two highlight races from the 2020. election Pennsylvania Donald Trump out to a big lead starts whittling away throughout the night over the overnight and all of a sudden you wake up and Joe Biden‘s winning right. We all remember that what people don’t tend to remember as much is the exact opposite happened in Arizona where you know Joe Biden was out to a big lead.

Trump Started Whittling Away At That If You

remember famously Fox News called Arizona early and then it got so close. Trump almost won it. The same thing is happening in Arizona right now where all night if people were looking at the results, it was like Oh my gosh Kerry Lake’s down by 13 points what’s going on yeah yeah and that continues to narrow as we go do you know how many um how much is in in Maricopa County I can give you that number I. Don’t have it in front of me okay um but here’s where we stand right now Katie Howe jobs 50. 9 percent of the vote, carry Lake 49.

1 Percent Of The Vote, So Its

already narrowed dramatically from where we were talking about last night Yeah an interesting thing if you if you want to get an indication. The New York Times makes real-time projections on how much of the vote is left in each of these states so they were looking at this all night and they don’t do it. They didn’t do it for the governors, but they did do it for the Senate now in the Senate. They have Masters” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener”>Blake Masters, who is still a race that we’ve too close to call, but favored their last projection. At about 4 a.

M Was That Masters Was Going To

lose by 2.8 points Okay that’s an important number to remember. That’s about that’s that’s about where the polls had been the the whole time and Master’s got a couple late polls that were better than that but Yeah, but it’s still within the margin of error right around there now so what’s the split between these two candidates right now Mark Kelly in the current cut count is up by six over Masters six points. The difference over in the gubernatorial race is 1. 8.

So Throughout The Entire Night That Split Between

Lake and Masters was about four points. It went up to five at some points went down a little bit below four but right around four points. If that final New York Times projection is correct and Masters loses by 2. 8 that would indicate that Lake will come back and squeak. This one out now that’s a projection built on top of a projection so you should not.

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Take That To The Bank Do Not Put

your money on it right, but it’s not at all out of the question that Kerry Lake can win this race. In fact, you you could look at it and say if you if you had to pick one of these two candidates to be Hobbs or Lake, you might want to be Lake right now so that’s a positive Masters is the opposite. You’d probably want to be Kelly in this race in Arizona, but it’s going to be super tight. No no no no I wouldn’t want to be killed okay that’s a good point. No I wouldn’t want to be Kelly now a couple of the other big so a lot some a lot of the races went the way we thought they would go yeah um you know I’m looking at my we were hoping you know we.

We Said Yesterday We Kept Coming Back And

going I want to give it to them. I want to give it to them right, but we were split on. I don’t know exactly what’s gonna happen and I think what we hoped did not happen What we all kind of had a gut feeling might happen happened Yeah. We were hoping for some big red tsunami. Yeah did not think that was going to happen and it didn’t but we thought I thought it was going to happen when you saw early on Florida.

Youre Like Holy Cow Yeah And

it’s interesting. One of the things you do is you’re in analyzing elections in real time is you look at results that come in from these early States states that are competent in counting their vote like Florida and you could take indications from that generally speaking as to the entire climate. You look at this and you say okay well. Florida is going really really red. We didn’t expect it to be this red perhaps or in a year where we’re going to be more red than the polls and you start thinking okay wow This could look really good and you didn’t real what we wound up finding out is it was just Florida it was really the rest of it.

When Is The Story.

The story is 20 points that’s the big We Believe leave the biggest margin ever in Florida. Absolutely incredible I mean even the outlier polls for UK were UK plus 15. yeah, which was out of the norm. I mean they missed the polls did Miss in Florida.

Republicans Outperformed Their Polls.

The the Florida story is a massive story that we’re going to be getting into for the next couple of years history was set history was set in Florida in a couple ways 20 points largest spread ever and two no one has ever lost as a Republican, a Democrat and an independent ever okay and Charlie Chris made that happen. You know I knew Charlie Chris was special. He is special now we know why but I mean it’s interesting because of all the races we talked about yesterday. The only one that I had leaning Republican that has been called at this point was Pennsylvania, which is a whole we should be doing.

Weeks Of Shows To Discuss Discuss

the mental issues that must lead to putting this man in the Senate. The fact that Pennsylvania will be punished by him representing them may be the worst punishment of all no for that because we’re punished by we get punished by it too we get punished by it too look at here’s the here’s the the thing that I I think we should take away Red States got redder blue States got Bluer don’t you think yeah nothing no Minds were really except for Florida No mines were really changed. Everything is just really really close and the purple stuff stayed purple Yeah you know for the most part I you know with the exception of Florida, which now looks all of a sudden like the most Republic. It’s more red than like Wyoming that’s apparently that’s more red than Texas certainly Texas. Actually Rabbit did really well.

I Mean No He Did, But He

won by 12 points right. I mean the spirit of Texas is in Florida. Now I still love Texas, but I love Florida too. I love you in Florida, but I think there is a I think you know the Texas story was a little interesting.

On The Border One Thing That Beto

maybe did maybe a replacement level candidate That Couldn’t raise money, which is the only thing that beta was good at maybe that candidate loses by 16 instead of 12 and those border districts. Many of them wound up going back to the Democrats. There was that hope that this movement among Hispanics on.

Summary

Florida seems to have the best system out there, but we’re still waiting we don’t even know for sure if we have control of Congress yeah. The house is not a completely sure thing Republicans would be the favorites there um 99 favorite or like a 60 figure now let me give you a top line thing from the prediction markets here as we’ve gone through and settled through all the results and tried to sort through what the heck happened last night . According to betting markets Democratic House Democratic Senate 14 chance of that happening . The most likely outcome is a Republican House A Democratic Senate 73 chance now there’s a little bit some rounding in there so it’s not going to add up exactly but that you get the sense as to where people are looking people. The people who actually bet their own money on this stuff are saying this is where we see this right now. There’s not a lot of this is going to be the most likely outcomes right now, but there’s been a little little rounding ….. Click here to read more and watch the full video