Heres Why the Polls Dont Make ANY Sense Steve Deace Show

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I Spent Some More Time This Week,

and I want to share some things with you guys because I spent I spent some more time this week going through the polls, and I want to share some data with you about the latest stuff that is out there because the polls they just don’t make any sense all right. Let’s start with the big picture so the big picture. If you take the entire narrative of the public polling the big picture is that Joe Biden is a stronger candidate at this stage of the election than Barack Obama was in 2008 when he would go on and get the biggest Democrat presidential win since LbJ in 1964. Right now they’re saying Joe Biden is in a stronger position than that they’re, saying that Donald Trump is an even weaker incumbent at this stage than George Herbert Walker. Bush was in 1992.

Thats Thats The Big Picture Narrative You Have

to buy or to accept the conclusions of the public polling so let’s go to some specifics next all right let’s go to Rasmussen. This was the most accurate national poll in 2016. and its latest national poll says that Joe Biden is going to outperform look at this now that Joe Biden is going to outperform FDr’s final re-elect in 1944 when he was in the midst of winning World War Ii after D-day the Nazis are in retreat after Macarthur I shall return to the Philippines after all of that and arguably the most popular president since George Washington Franklin, Delano Roosevelt. Rasmussen is Claiming that Joe Biden is going to outperform FDr’s final re-elect campaign in the middle of World War Ii in the fall of 1944. .

Next Lets Get Specific Lets Go To This

Quinnipiac” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener”>quinnipiac poll. Now Quinnipiac is rated a B-plus pollster by 538 except their recent track record in the state of Florida. Not so much here was their tweet right before the 2018 midterms and you can see they have Andrew Gillum base head Andrew Gillum up seven points in the Governor’s race against Ron Desantis Gentlemen is Andrew Gillum the governor of Florida today. No who would be somebody who doesn’t have a crack problem apparently yes and as wasn’t trailing by seven points. Seven points guys That’s like twice the margin for error okay seven points in the final Quinnipiac poll Ron Desantis as governor of Florida today and yet somehow they’re a B-plus pollster at 5-38.

So Its Almost Impossible For A Republican To

win the white house without Florida Here’s what Quinnipiac with the backdrop of what they said in the last election Here’s what Quinnipiac says about the 2020 presidential election in Florida take a look at this from Quinnipiac All right. The average margin of victory in Florida in the last seven presidential elections is two and a half points well. It’s 2. 491 I just rounded it up okay that’s the average margin of victory in Florida is two and a half points in the last seven elections Quinnipiac’s latest Florida poll says that Joe biden is going to outperform that average by 400 percent 400 percent guys 400 percent okay. Based on what we saw from Quinnipiac in 2018 that could only mean a 10-point Trump win in the state how about Pennsylvania let’s move next there.

All Right Now Trump Became The First

Republican in almost 30 years to capture Pennsylvania was the white whale for Republican presidential candidates for decades trying to crack that nut figure it out all right now. Monmouth is an a plus rated pollster at 538 poster I respect currently has biden leading the state by 12 points. However, if that were to happen, it would mean that Joe biden would outperform Barack Obama and his turnout in that historic win that he had in 2008 and Obama again has the biggest Democratic party presidential victory since LbJ in 1964. and Monmouth is claiming that Joe biden’s going to outperform that in the state of Pennsylvania all right. In other words, Monmouth is claiming.

If The Election Were Held Today,

Trump would suffer a massive 13 point negative swing in Pennsylvania Yet how do you square that with these numbers since 2016, Democrats have lost 41 294 voters in the state of Pennsylvania, while Republicans have gained 158 445., so how is Joe biden Joe biden going to win by 11 points given those voter registration numbers let me put those in a further context for you. Trump is president today because he won the three decisive states of 2016 by a grand total of 78 000 votes. However, in Pennsylvania alone Republicans have seen a voter registration surge that is more than 150 percent greater than that from just the keystone state. So Trump is going to have substantially more Republican voters in Pennsylvania than he had in 2016.

, But Then Hes Going To Do Substantially Worse

in 2020. okay if you say. So finally let’s go back to Rasmussen where this all began all right now. Rasmussen again that was the most accurate poll in 2016. it currently has Joe biden plus 12, which would be the largest popular vote win by a Democratic presidential candidate against a Republican in almost a hundred years FDr over Herbert Hoover and the main reason why, according to Rasmussen is that Trump is historically unpopular with Republicans.

The Latest Rasmussen Poll That Has Biden Plus

12 has Trump only getting 76 of the Republican vote. Trump got 88 percent of Republicans in the 2016 election. His average approval rating his entire presidency with Republicans the average has been 87 and yet with the Democratic Party the furthest left it’s ever been. Rasmussen is claiming that Trump is going to lose 12 points of Republican support from the last election, which is pretty much his entire. margin of defeat in their poll to put that in a historical context the worst a Republican has done in the last seven presidential elections with Republican voters George Herbert Walker Bush got 73 percent in 1992 and that was with a perot on the ballot siphoning off his own support Something trump doesn’t have guys Trump may lose on November the third.

I Promise You This He Aint Getting Just

76 of the Republican vote. It’s just not happening it’s not like monkeys Aren’t going to fly to my butt trump’s not only getting 76 of the Republican vote that’s just not going to happen now to me. None of this makes any sense the math doesn’t add up. The assumptions are questionable at best and if you study the methodologies of these polls you know it reminds me of when I was studying the methodology of the Imperial. College survey and it just doesn’t add up and everyone told me at the time.

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I Was Nuts At First, But

I turned out to be right about every one of my challenges. Because when you’re doing a model, the logic, the assumptions and then the conclusion have to be symmetrical. They have to line up not be asymmetric symmetrical A plus B must equal C otherwise the model isn’t sound and it wasn’t with imperial college and the models that are being shown to you in these polls. They’re not sound as well and I leave you with this point if you were to consider every other metric that matters when looking at an election environment.

For Example, Look At The Voter Registration Numbers

and it’s not just in Pennsylvania. This is going on across the country if you look at the things like NBa rankings are ratings television. ratings tanking over Wokeness and that’s the most liberal fan base of in American team sports probably other than soccer and even they don’t want to watch this stuff look at a falling unemployment rate look at all of those metrics. If you never looked at a single poll and you just looked at every other metric that told you what was going on in an election campaign.

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You Would Think Trump Is Cruising To

re-election the only thing that says differently are the polls draw your own conclusion from there. Joe biden may win on November the 3rd I don’t know but I can tell you. I know this the methodologies in the internals in these polls are at best wrong and flawed at worst Imperial college.

Summary

I spent some more time this week going through the polls, and I want to share some data with you about the latest stuff that is out there because the polls they just don’t make any sense all right. Let’s start with the big picture. The big picture is that Joe Biden is a stronger candidate at this stage of the election than Barack Obama was in 2008 when he would go on and get the biggest Democrat presidential win since LbJ in 1964 . Let’s go to Rasmussen. Rasmussen is Claiming that Joe . Biden is going to outperform FDr’s final re-elect campaign in the middle of World War Ii in the fall of 1944. The most accurate national poll in 2016. The biggest pollster in the history of the history is Rasmussen. It’s also claiming that Joe. Biden will outperform Obama’s last re-election campaign in 1944 when the Nazis are in retreat after D-day the Nazis were in retreat in the retreat after Macarthur I shall return…. Click here to read more and watch the full video